The truth may be that we credit political insiders with insight, but if you watch the news as closely as I do, and are located in a spot that is saturated with election coverage, well, I have some ideas of my own.
Which brings me to the obvious, can't believe no one has seen this coming dramatic revelation I have just had.
You see there is a deep division in the Republican Party. Trump may or may not win, but I have ben saying for awhile now, that he will run in the General Election no matter what. This seems obvious to me, but like Stalin and Hitler, Trump had made a pact that he would not run against the GOP. Since no great political debate is complete without a Hitler mention, let's just say Trump doesn't seem real steady on his promise
There are those Republicans who will not vote for Trump no matter what, and while the Jeb/Rubio crowd may come to mind, it is also the Cruz wing which is very Conservative. According to Social Media interactions I have witnessed lately, the Trump crowd feels the same, calling Ted Cruz the same as Hillary or Bernie, which seems a bit ridiculous, but ok.
So I have had it in my mind for some time that we will see two candidates from the right. This could be off, of course, and maybe everyone rallies around Trump, or ralies around Cruz or whatever, but I don't see those scenarios playing out.
I suspect the nominee will be who has done the best most recently. If Cruz would win out and finish close to Donald's total, then I think the GOP would be fine with him as the nominee. Two weeks ago, this seemed to be realistic, though one suspect that Trump crushes in New York and has enough delegates that he should get the nomination or else there will be a big fight, and Trump obviously has grounds for a 3rd Party run.
Surely undoubtedly, that means someone will run against Trump from the right. I think the moderates will back up Trump, but there of course is the chance of a Paul Ryan nomination or with John Kasich hanging around, there are other moderates who can be in play.
I think there are chances of a 3rd party in a Trump vs Hillary race but I don't know who that is. Bloomberg is a name that comes up, but I suspect the run will come from the Right. Funny enough, in any other year, with say like a candidate like Jim Webb, republicans might hold thier nose and vote Democrat, but with the other candidate being Hillary, I can only see a third party emerging.
We have not heard much from a Ted Cruz third party run, though we may see the first gleaming of that with the launch of a new SuperpAC this week
. Anyway, i have been saying this for months, but to confirm my feeling HuffPo posted this article
this week which puts the numbers behind it.
In short, Cruz/Trump supporters certainly aren't going to vote for Hillary, and they don't really want to vote for the other guy either. I don't know that Cruz runs, but I can tell you his followers aren't volting Trump. If not Cruz, then I am not sure who, but I suspect we will see a bunch of "Draft..." movements starting with Marine General James Mattis
Anyway, I haven't told you anything you don't know yet, so here goes.
The general conventional wisdom is at the end of the day the Democrats will rally around Hillary. This seems doubly so if she is running against Trump or Cruz. The CW is many Democrats prefer Bernie Sanders, but this fall will vote for Hillary.
That is because that are many Dems like me who like Clinton, but she's not our number one pick. So for me, I am not going to vote for Hillary if I can vote for Bernie, Webb, O'Malley, Chafee, Warren, Booker, Biden, Gore, Emmanual, Castro, McCaskill, Bayh, Cuomo, Schweitzer, Warner or Mike Dukakis.
I think this was especially true early on, but the Sanders-Clinton primary has been pretty brutal. That said, even before the primary turned heated, there are a lot of people out there who don't fall in to that category any more than the "republicans will rally around Rubio" theorem. There's my friend L who caucused for Ron Paul four years ago and wouldn't vote for Hillary. There's my friend R who plans on voting for Bernie in November, and if he's not on the ballot, he's writing him in.
I don't know if Bernie has a 3rd Party run in mind. CertaInly, Hillary is polarizing, that surely there's someone who would make sense to run. Someone who might appeal to the GOP voter would seem an obvious choice (though it probably won't be Bloomberg
But what about the Left. What about the Bernie supporters who won't vote for Hillary any more than Cruz voters will vote for Trump.
Then it was suddenly clear.
Donald Trump is going to name Bernie Sanders his running mate.
OMG! It's so obvious.
I am convinced that Trump will do anything to win. His anti-immigrant stance may be all schtick as far as I can tell, since that has a groundswell of built in support. Trump famously has donated money to Hillary, John Kerry and Ted Kennedy in the past. Trump
has been pro-choice in the past, pro-gun control and single payer healthcare
Which brings me to the Trump-Sanders ticket.
I can't say Sanders would sign up for it, but I don't know if you can nominate someone despite their objections.
Besides building a wall on the Mexican border and 'free college for everyone' aren't mutually exclusive. You can be for both.
Just remember you heard it from me first.